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Imprisoned in international oil prices: stock high demand

Imprisoned in international oil prices: stock high demand

just to show rebound in international oil prices, fell back again and crossing.  

the market close on November 12, the International crude oil futures prices fell for two consecutive trading days, and fell to the lowest since August, on the other hand, crude oil price and the closing price on October 1 of the current flat, which means that after more than a month after the shock of oil prices returned to the low base price in the fourth quarter, as evidenced by weak.  

many industry insiders said in an interview with the 21st century business Herald, led to sharp drop in oil prices causes mainly is caused by the current glut of crude oil, the current inventories of crude oil had reached a high of 80 years. 

oil prices again tumbled

October had experienced a strong rebound in international oil prices, also is in the market for its official meet the rebound on the timing of the debate, again fell into a slump.

as of market close on November 12, the New York Futures Exchange-WTI12-month crude oil futures contract closed down $ 1.18, to $ 41.75 a barrel, or 2.75%, while London ice Brent crude for December futures contract closed down $ 1.75, to $ 44.06 a barrel, or 3.82%.  From the time period of the year as a whole, have 5 appearances in international oil prices dip, and according to the laws of previous years, usually two dip in oil prices in a year already belongs to a rare condition.

"the current international oil price risk is not low price, but a serious lack of positive factors in the market, support to force potential could not be found, said oil prices are in the embattled situation too much. "Long audience petrochemical network analyst said in an interview with the 21st century business Herald Li Yan," the recent decline in core bad mainly because United States crude oil inventories increased for seven consecutive weeks, 4.22 million barrels increase far exceeded expectations, and Cushing stocks rose 2.237 million barrels. The other hand, continue without reduction of positions in Saudi Arabia, OPEC report acknowledges that real output over the ceiling. At present, dealers oversupply situation and prospects for next year are also very worrying, exceptionally weak market sentiment. "

in fact, high inventories of crude oil have become restricted oil prices the most important, and most concerns that one of the factors. On November 12, the United States energy information administration EIA data showed, as of November 6 United States commercial crude-oil inventories (excluding the strategic petroleum reserve) 487.03 million barrels, close to April hit all-time high of 490 million barrels, while rose 4.22 million barrels a week earlier, far exceeding the followed a 1.1 million barrels expected by analysts. "The current crude inventory levels at least for the past 80 years the highest level.  "Li Yan told the 21st century business Herald reporter.  

according to the Organization of petroleum exporting countries OPEC monthly report notes that keeping production in October, global daily surplus of about 560,000 barrels next year, although the report predicts decline in value of 750,000 barrels a day from the previous month, market oversupply problem will continue.

crude inventories in developed economies now for over 5 years on average, about 150 million barrels, occurred for the first time since the financial crisis of 2008.  The OECD (OECD) economies crude inventories for more than 5 years on average, nearly 210 million barrels, higher than the 180 million barrels in early 2009.

in addition to the supply side, oil demand is similarly worrying.  A Shanghai oil traders, Mr LI told the 21st century business Herald reporter, current United States and high crude inventories reflect the overall consumption in Europe far from strong levels, while such important regional economic slowdown in consumption in China and Asia, also dragged down the market's confidence in the Outlook for demand.

Meanwhile, the OECD (OECD) has released in recent days warned that the slowdown in international trade could lead to the world's leading economies back into recession, global trade data is a matter of deep concern.  This year, the downturn in global trade has dropped dangerously close to the global level.

"overall, the current supply and demand continues to be market traders weigh key high United States crude inventories is the current strong evidence of the need for strong or weak pattern. United States 9-10 months after the end of the traditional low season, inventories increased rather than decreased, recent up Cushing stocks are directly the weight WTI. Meanwhile economic weakness in China and Asia, demand-side cannot expect to make a lot, making traders fears of aggravating. At present oil prices near the $ 40 mark time again, OPEC is still not obvious designer position, it said in a monthly report, October 31.38 million barrels of its capping of well over 30 million barrels a day, cause bad swelling against killing of oil.  "Li Yan told the 21st century business Herald reporter.  

oil prices turn hopeless during the year

in fact, markets are most concerned about at present is that kept international oil prices is there hope of reversal during the year, or, in the case of many bad hit, does enjoy some good.

according to lung petrochemical network's analysis indicates that "in accordance with the experience of previous bottom bounce this year to conclude, if crude oil prices rebounded to gain needed plus a total of 5 points, respectively United States oil drilling and oil production declined, falling dollar, geopolitical tensions, stocks, and demand is expected to turn for the better. But the United States failed to yield continued to decline, US dollar flagging a modified, return to calm the situation in the Middle East, surge in stocks difficult to continuously, which means that there's only demand is expected to turn for the better can be regarded as a potential boon in oil prices supported, but under the global economic downturn, who can guarantee that demand will turn good? "

despite the high inventories of oil, but the United States oil supplies remained cut piece of momentum. Under the United States energy information administration data showed last week, United States crude oil inventory growth and yields rebounded sharply, United States yield increased 0.3% per cent to 9.185 million barrels of crude a day last week, hitting a more than 2-month highs, though smaller than the decline in peak of 9.6 million barrels, but remained at historically high levels.  Meanwhile, more foreign media reports that November will have more than 19 million barrels Iraq oil imported into the United States, and since 2012 maximum number of excess supply situation there still seems to be room to continue fermentation.  

in addition to United States outside OPEC and Russia also expressed reluctance to cut production, Chairman of Saudi Arabia's national oil company, said recently that, at present there is no output, will produce enough oil to meet the needs of customers, and this shows that the Saudis will not be cut, pressure on the supply side to further expand.

in addition to beyond supply and demand levels, US dollar interest rate expectations have also become a sword hangs over international oil prices heads. "The United States strong October jobs data, resulting in high probability of Fed rate hike in December, has been strong and the future could be even stronger dollar, would put prices under further pressure.  "These oil traders, Mr LI told the 21st century business Herald reporter.

it is worth noting that, on November 12, fed officials speaking intensive debut.  Although the Fed President Yellen speaks on the day not on monetary policy or issue related to macroeconomic, St Louis Fed President Bullard reaffirmed its support for raising interest rates, New York Fed President Dudley said the Fed's Policy Committee may need to start raising interest rates for the first time since 2006.

the other hand, judging from the current mood, the market still generally pessimistic about the future trend of international oil prices. The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its annual Outlook report, the global oil oversupply situation will persist for years, cleaner fuels and more efficient in pursuit will offset the impact of falling oil prices. Between now and 2020 crude oil demand will grow only under 1%, oil prices are unlikely to recover to us $ 80 a barrel.  After 2020 projected demand growth stagnated, rising 5% the next 20 years.

Meanwhile, United Kingdom petroleum (BP) on November 10, said that for at least the next three years, it is difficult to rise in oil prices to 60 dollars a barrel. Until the end of 2016, could see demand outstripping supply. Even so, the price momentum will push the price of oil continues to fall, and at least a few years.


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